CARRUSLiNK
    Back to blogReport · 4 April 2026 · 10 min

    Aftersales in an EV world: Deloitte forecasts a 30–45% drop

    Aftersales in an EV world: Deloitte forecasts a 30–45% drop

    -30 to -45%

    Workshop revenue

    -80 to -90%

    BEV maintenance

    -20 to -30%

    Parts trade

    Deloitte's report "The Future of Aftersales in a BEV World" paints a dramatic picture: workshop revenue falls 30–45% and the parts trade 20–30%. For dealers who live on service, it's an existential challenge, but also an opportunity.

    The inevitable shift to BEV by 2040

    In 2022, 10% of all cars produced were electric. Deloitte expects 30% by 2030 and almost 70% by 2040. Most OEMs have set ambitious targets: Stellantis and Ford 100% BEV by 2030, VW 60%, BMW 50%.

    How BEV affects each service segment

    The effect varies significantly:

    Service segmentRevenue drop (BEV vs ICE)
    Maintenance80–90%
    Wear and tear20–30%
    Repairs30–40%
    AccidentsMinimal change
    AccessoriesMinimal change

    The biggest loss: maintenance. BEVs have no oil changes, fuel filters or exhaust systems. The remaining items only need service every 2+ years.

    The Tesla effect

    Tesla honours warranties even without regular service and has an 80% resolution rate via over-the-air updates. Customers perceive their cars as "maintenance-free", and competitors are following suit.

    The big picture: -32% for a typical OEM

    Even though the car park grows, total aftersales revenue falls more than 30% by 2040. Growth can't compensate for the lower revenue per vehicle.

    Deloitte's 5 solution areas

    1. Customer and product management, Loyalty programmes and "peace of mind" packages.
    2. Service operations, Specialised "service factories" and mobile service vans.
    3. Process digitisation, A robust CRM system is "a crucial element".
    4. Vehicle integration, Digital diagnostics, OTA updates and connected-car features.
    5. Battery service, Repair and recycling of batteries.

    CRM as the key to retention

    Deloitte stresses: "A robust, centralized CRM system is a crucial element of the dealership management system." When service intervals drop, every contact point matters more than ever.

    What can independent dealers do now?

    • Invest in a CRM that tracks the whole customer journey, including EV data like battery health.
    • Offer "peace of mind" packages, All-inclusive 2–3 year service contracts.
    • Build new service categories, Battery checks, software updates, charge-box installation.
    • Digitise customer communication, Automatic reminders and proactive contact.

    CARRUSLiNK is built for this reality: a platform that brings together CRM, inventory and service contracts, including EV-specific data, in one system.

    Sources: Deloitte, "The Future of Aftersales in a BEV World. Under Repair" (2023)